As everyone is no doubt aware by now, Michael Vick will plead guilty to the dog-fighting charges. He will face a maximum of five years in jail and a $250,000 fine, with most people believing his sentence will be somewhere between 12 months and 18 months, though whether he might get time off for good behavior or have some of his time regulated to probation is anyone’s guess.

I think it is safe to say that he will be in jail for at least a year. It is a serious crime with too much public attention for it to be any lighter than that. The Monday Night Football crew was talking about what happens when he comes back to the NFL. It’s a good guess that he will have a year suspension to serve as well as his jail time. He could serve this concurrently with his jail time, but that is very doubtful since it is basically a free pass from the NFL and this case is too high-profile with the other disciplinary problems facing the league.

My guess: He never plays in the NFL again. Michael Vick is a superstar, but he is not a great quarterback. He has been in the league for six years, but he has never matured as a passing quarterback. There were already plenty of doubts about whether he will ever become a solid quarterback with some people clamoring for Matt Schaub to play last year.

He’ll be gone for two, possibly three years. And I don’t think he’s going to learn how to pass the ball in prison.

The NFL is often-times called a second-chance league. Truth is, it is a talent-first league. If you have talent, you can get a second or even third chance. Michael Vick definitely has talent, but he’s also had six years to turn that talent into a solid quarterback, and while he is dangerous with his legs, he is still erratic with his arm.

So, while I think that a team might be willing to pick up a guy after spending a year or two in jail and another year in suspension under the guise of giving him a second chance, I just don’t see Michael Vick being that guy. Factor in the huge public relations hit with the fact that he might never have become a great quarterback even if he didn’t go to jail, and it just doesn’t seem like a good gamble.

And, I’ll add, good riddance. What he did was deplorable. I wouldn’t mind seeing at least a two year sentence being handed down.