The media will take the game results and run with them, declaring that no team in the NFC and no other team but Indianapolis in the AFC has a chance of taking out New England, and all but putting a Super Bowl trophy in their hands.
But let’s just think about what might have been had the Cowboys been healthy.
Now, before I get into it, I want to say that New England wasn’t healthy. They were missing their starting running back, and for much of the game, they were out their backup running back too. They also lost their tight end at the end of the first half. There’s no doubt an injury-free Patriots would be better than the Patriots we faced yesterday.
Despite the loss, Dallas is still the clear favorites to reach the Super Bowl for the NFC. Hey, it’s six games into the season, so anything can happen between now and then, but right now Dallas is the team to beat. And, it’s fair to say that New England is the favorite to represent the AFC. The Colts may be the reigning champs, and are also still undefeated, but New England notches them out for favorite in many people’s minds.
So, what might have happened if Dallas was healthy?
Think about this. Wes Welker had 11 catches for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns. Pretty good day I’d say. And, for many of those yards, Nate Jones was being asked to cover him. But, given a healthy Newman and a healthy Henry, Newman would move into the slot to cover Wes Welker, leaving Reeves to cover Moss (like he did for most of the day) and Henry to cover Stallworth.
Now, if you didn’t notice, Newman didn’t give up any of those touchdowns yesterday. In fact, I’d be surprised if his guys got over 50 yards receiving combined. I don’t have a game tape to study, but I can recall one out pattern, one slant by Moss, and then just a bunch of quick screens to the receiver that Newman generally stuffed.
Newman may be unheralded, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s damn good, and a whole lot better at covering the slot receiver than Nate Jones.
So, I think its safe to say that Welker wouldn’t be having quite as big a day against a healthy secondary. And Moss, well, he’d be facing the same thing that limited him on Sunday when in their three wide receiver set — Reeves and some safety help. This leaves Henry verses Stallworth as the X-factor.
Now, there is no doubt that New England would still be able to have a good day throwing the ball around, and Brady would likely have a multiple touchdown day even if our secondary was healthy, but there’s also no doubt it would be tougher going.
That’s what happens when you have an injury to one of your starting corners and you are going up against a team with three good wide receivers. Suddenly, you are asking your fourth cornerback to cover a Wes Welker. And, remember, covering the slot guy is the toughest job on the field. That’s why, when healthy, we move Newman to that position. When you cover the other guys you have the sideline to give you a little cushion, but that slot guy can go either way.
So, while Brady racked up a bunch of yards on his way to a career day — and kudos to him, when the Dallas defense didn’t get pressure on him he was throwing the ball pretty good — he should be facing a different secondary should these two teams meet again.
And, since we are talking about injuries, let’s look at the offensive a bit. The Cowboys certainly get into a funk during the first quarter. But, after that, they moved the ball reasonably well. Heck, Julius Jones was pulling a Marion the Barbarian act, and Tony Romo was slinging the ball around pretty good.
In the second half, we had two critical penalties kill good scoring opportunities. The first was a long completion to Owens to put us on the Patriots side of the field that was called back due to holding. That one hurt. 1st and 20 is tough. The second one was the holding call that brought back the fourth and one conversion. Another drive that had potential for points called back for penalties.
No doubt, healthy or not, the Cowboys aren’t going to beat the Patriots with that many penalties. But, I’ve gone over all that in my previous article.
Think on this: Terry Glenn. I like Crayton and Hurd, they are both reliable receivers with good hands. But they can’t stretch the defense like Glenn can stretch the defense. And with a guy like Glenn in the lineup, it gets a bit tough trying to deal with Owens and Witten.
I’d have to say that, given two healthy teams, we’d be seeing a bit different type of game going on. Certainly, Dallas’s chances would drastically improve. Going into Sunday’s game, the only shot we had was if we came out with the same fire and intensity the Bills had against us the week before. Other than that, a banged up secondary was just going to be too much to overcome going against that many weapons.
Now, I think anyone giving an unbiased opinion would still favor the Patriots given two healthy teams. We have to be realistic here. If we do manage to continue playing well and make it to the Super Bowl, and we meet this same team in that game, we are still going to be underdogs. And rightfully so. The Patriots are downright scary.
But our chances of pulling off the win would be much higher than our chances yesterday. And, remember, we were still in that game until the Romo interception with four minutes to go. You give the Cowboys a healthy secondary and a healthy Glenn, and I think they are one of two teams (the other being the Colts) that have a legitimate shot at beating the Patriots.